Kevin de Villiers, CEO of Arcay Investments, says if it is still necessary to have empowerment codes and legislative backing for empowerment, then it will have failed.

“Empowerment is working so it is highly unlikely that it will still be an issue in 10 years time. By then black business will be standing on its own feet without any need for artificial assistance such as empowerment legislation.”

He says government’s pragmatism is contributing to the positive scenario.

When measures are put in place, government listens to feedback and if an approach is not working in the intended manner, there is an adjustment, he says.

“In terms of black financial muscle it is still a bit early for this to have already emerged, particularly when it is considered that empowerment has only been actively pursued over the past few years. Five years is not enough time for highly successful black businesses to emerge.

“However, it is clear that from now on we will see black business powerhouses coming to the fore, and they will begin to have a profound effect on the country’s economy.”

He says front runners of SA’s excellent black companies are likely to show up from now on.

However, De Villiers cautions that business is tough and even with the best people going into business the failure rate for new ventures is 85%.

“The next five years will be very exciting, as we will see examples of genuine black empowerment and black partnerships that are working to the benefit of all concerned.”

He says the indications will be that companies will win business in direct competition with their peers without a need for empowerment-related advantages.

“These companies will gain contracts because they are at the top of their fields. Whether they are operating in the information technology, banking, or any other sector, they will be winning because they do their job better than any other company in SA.”

He says these companies will be excellent companies in their own right.

De Villiers says for example there are information companies that are efficient and they are making money. However, 90% of their contracts are with government, which raises questions as to their ability to compete on the national and international stage.

“When there is a high percentage of government work there is likely to be some element of who you are rather than what you do.

“However, in the next five years black companies will come forth that are not dependent on government contracts.

“It will be a key indicator of empowerment’s success when black-controlled companies with a significant percentage of non-government business emerge,” De Villiers says.

He says all indications are that a strong black middle class is emerging more rapidly than many people believed possible.

In time the size of this black middle class and the relative number of wealthy and successful black entrepreneurs will more accurately reflect this country’s demographics, he says.

“When this has taken place, the need for black empowerment rules will fall away and the current initiatives in that direction will have succeeded.

“The relaxation and eventual elimination of black empowerment regulations will be the lasting monument to the success of the entire initiative,” De Villiers says.